Zack's Divisional Winners & Losers

Hey everyone! Thanks for checking out this article. Alex mentioned to me that he was writing a divisional winners/losers article, so I decided to join the fun. Let me know where you stand, @AtoZffb. Also, check out who I have losing the AFC East... Yeah, I went there! Enjoy the article.

AFC North

Winners: Baltimore Ravens

The Baltimore Ravens are setting themselves up to be in a position to win this division for the foreseeable future. Lamar Jackson (23 yrs. old) is the best dual threat QB we have seen since Mike Vick. The Ravens should have a fully healthy Marquise Brown in 2020. Brown was the team’s 1st round pick in 2019, but he was dealing with injuries literally all season. Brown has stated recently that at times last year he could not even walk. Both Marquise Brown and Lamar Jackson have been working out with future pro-bowl WR, Antonio Brown this offseason.. It is safe to say, Marquise Brown looks like he is healthy and ready to go for 2020.

Other weapons: Mark Andrews, Miles Boykin, Devin Duvernay, Mark Ingram, JK Dobbins… This team is loaded with talent at every position. As Lamar Jackson continues to develop as a passer, all of these players’ will reap the benefits. The Ravens defense also emerged late last year as a real problem for opposing teams. The Baltimore Ravens have an extremely well rounded roster, and are poised to win this divsion in 2020 and beyond.

Losers: Cincinnati Bengals

The Cincinnati Bengals made the Cleveland Browns (6-10) look good last year. It is almost as if these two teams are competing at all times for who can be the most dysfunctional organization in the league. The Bengals are coming off of a 2-14 season led by first year head coach, Zach Taylor. With any first year head coach, there are growing pains that should be expected. Combine that with the fact that the Bengals had one of the worst defenses in the NFL, 2-14 is what you get. There are plenty of reasons that Bengals fans should be optimistic. The Bengals drafted a true franchise QB in Joe Burrow. Burrow is the highest graded QB prospect since Andrew Luck. Burrow also walks into a surprisingly good offensive situation. The Bengals OL is getting a huge boost this year. Last year, their 1st round pick, Jedrick Wills missed the entire season with an injury. Wills will make an immediate impact, and players like Joe Burrow and Joe Mixon will benefit greatly from this. At WR, the team is holding on to AJ Green for at least one more year. When healthy, Green is still an elite WR in this league, we just have not seen him healthy for some time now. The team also drafted WR Tee Higgins as an eventual replacement to AJ Green. The future of this offense looks very bright, especially if Joe Burrow lives up to the hype that he has earned. The reason I have the Bengals losing this division again in 2020 is more because the teams around them. The Ravens and the Steelers are far better than the Bengals, and the Browns have a more talented and complete roster.. Someone has to lose, and my sources tell me that someone is Cincinnati again in 2020.

AFC South

Winners: Tennessee Titans

In 2019 at the beginning of the season, I thought the Titans would be competing for last place in the division… Marcus Mariota had not proven to be anything special, the team clearly wanted to run the ball, but if they were losing games, Derrick Henry was neutralized because of his limitations as a pass catcher. After a 2-3 start to the season led by Marcus Mariota, Ryan Tannehill took over the starting job in week 6, and the team went 7-4 from that point forward. When Tannehill took over, the team’s identity shifted. We saw Derrick Henry emerge as the clear focal point of this offense, and the players around Henry started to emerge as well. Ryan Tannehill signed a contract to be the team’s franchise QB, Derrick Henry did not get the long term, big money deal he was looking for, but he has signed his franchise tender. Barring a holdout, Derrick Henry is expected to be a force for the Titans again in 2020. WR AJ Brown proved that he and Tannehill have a special WR / QB connection. Brown eclipsed 1,000 yards as a rookie on just 52 receptions, addin 8 TDs. Both AJ Brown and Derrick Henry are some of the most sought after fantasy assets in 2020, their ADP is a little out of control, so if these are players that you want to draft, be prepared to pay up for them.

Defensively, the Titans figured things out as the year went on. As their defense emerged, so did Derrick Henry. The team was able to grind out a lot of games on the back of Henry due to the Tennessee defense keeping opposing offenses in check. I have the Titans winning this division, I think the battle between TEN and IND will be interesting this year. IND is getting an upgrade at QB in Phillip Rivers. Rivers should be protected behind that Colts OL. My only concern with Rivers is last year we saw a noticeable decline in his play over the year. Rivers only signed a 1 year deal with the Colts, and already has plans to coach high school football when his playing days are done. I am not sure that Rivers has what it takes to overcome a very well rounded Titans team.

Losers: Jacksonville Jaguars

This was actually a little more difficult that you would have thought because of one, Bill O’Brien. O’Brien made some trades over the offseason that wouldn’t have even gone through in Madden, trading away franchise WR, Deondre Hopkins and only getting a 2nd round pick and an aging RB (David Johnson) in return. That being said, the Texans still have Deshaun Watson, one of the best QBs in the league. The Jacksonville Jaguars will be rolling out Savage Garden himself, Gardner Minshew as their starting QB. Last year we saw Minshew mania elevate the Jags at times, but the team still finished with a 6-10 record, last in the division. Jacksonville’s player transactions appear to indicate that they are in a full rebuild moving forward. Jacksonville has traded away some of their top defensive playmakers from the once feared Sacksonville Jags, and team ownership has burnt bridges with future stars. I think there will be fantasy value on the offense because the team will be playing from behind a lot. Minshew should offer plenty of streamable weeks. If Leondard Fournette is still on the team, he should have another year of a heavy workload, but the team is actively trying to trade Fournette.. Backup RBs Ryquell Armstead, Devine Ozigbo and James Robinson are players to keep an eye on in your dynasty leagues and redraft leagues this year. As Jacksonville enters a rebuild, I have them losing this division for the second straight year.

AFC East

Winners: Buffalo Bills

Well this is weird… Bills Mafia has been patiently waiting for this moment for years. The Buffalo Bills have quietly assembled a very talented roster, led by their 2nd ranked defense. Over the past two seasons, the Bills’s defense has been very good, now they are making moves to bring their offense up to speed. Josh Allen is an ascending talent in the NFL, for the first time in his career he will have viable weapons all around him. No offense to Smokey Brown and Cole Beasley, but these guys are not exactly who you want leading your WR core. The Bills traded a kings ransom to acquire Steffon Diggs from the Vikings, signalling that he will be their guy moving forward. Diggs is one of the best route runners in the league, but Josh Allen isn’t exactly the most accurate passer. This could be because Allen has always lacked weapons. Diggs is an extremely capable WR for Josh Allen in this revamped offense. Buffalo also solidified their 1 -2 punch at RB by drafting Zack Moss out of Utah. Moss should compliment Devin Singletary well by filling in the Frank Gore role for the Bills. A lot of people had hoped that Singletary would emerge as a feature back for the Bills, but Singletary is just not cut out for that role in the NFL, that does not mean he will not be a very reliable fantasy option, but his upside is certainly capped by a player like Zack Moss.

The Bills finally have the offensive firepower to match with their superb defense. Couple that with the fact that the Brady era is over in New England.. The Bills have the most talented roster in this division now, and I like them to win the division for the first time since 1995.

Losers: New England Patriots

I’m going for it.. Yes, the New England Patriots are my AFC East losers this year. An easy case could be made for why the Dolphins will lose the division again this year, they basically did a full re-build last year. But wholly smokes did they nail their draft. They got their franchise QB in Tua (Tank for Tua worked, even at the 5th overall pick!). They addressed key needs on both the OL and the DL. In free agency the Dolphins addressed RB by signing Jordan Howard, and then in the NFL Draft they acquired Matt Breida to add a very capable change of pace back. Say what you want about Jordan Howard & Matt Breida… These two are a clear upgrade over Kalen Ballage and Patrick Laird. Oh and by the way, the Dolphins essentially derailed the Patriots’s dynasty in week 17 by beating them 27-24. This was not a typical week 17 for New England, they were playing for the 2 seed, and a week 1 bye. By losing to the Dolphins in week 17, New England failed to secure a 1st round bye and went on to lose to the Tennessee Titans in the first round of the playoffs. The final 2 games we saw in the Brady/Belichik era were losses the the Miami Dolphins and the Tennessee Titans…. People will be quick to reference the 2008 Patriots team led by backup QB Matt Cassel. This team finished 11-5 with Cassel under center from week 2 on. (Brady tore his ACL this season). While it is certainly impressive that a backup QB put up 10 wins in a season, remember that this was 1 year removed from the Patriots 16-0 season. The offensive talent on the 2007-2008 roster was FAR better than what first year starter Jarett Stidham will have at his disposal in 2020. Stidham will not have peak Randy Moss or a 26 year old Wes Welker.. Stidham will have 2nd year wide-out N’Keal Harry, who did not show us very much in his rookie season… And an aging (33 years old), often injured Julian Edelman (who may actually be a better option at QB). Given the Patriots salary cap situation, they are in no shape to bring in any high impact players. The Patriots have barely over 1 million dollars in available cap space… While the Patriots defense is great, I just want to remind you that they lost to the Dolphins in week 17… DPOY Stephon Gilmore allowed DeVante Parker to rack up 8 receptions for 137 yards in this matchup. Obviously the Patriots were lights out for most of the 2019 season, but saying that their defense is the reason they will win the division does not hold water, especially with such a significant downgrade at QB. On top of that, one injury on either side of the ball could be detrimental to the team as a whole.

Is Bill Belichick a great head coach? Absolutely, maybe the greatest of all time. All I am saying here is Bill has his work cut out for him this year. This will be a very strange time for Patriots fans, for the first time since I have been alive, the Patriots might be legitimately bad. Just because the team has been dominant for so long does not mean we should just pencil them in for another 10+ win season because that is what we are used to. In 2020 we should see a shift in power in the AFC East. The Bills have been patiently building something special over the past few years, and in the case of the Patriots, I tend to believe the departure of a 6x Super Bowl Champion, future HOF QB would hurt ANY team’s outlook the following year. Patriots are my losers for 2020… If I am wrong on this, at least it was entertaining and fun to think about.

AFC West

Winners: Kansas City Chiefs

The AFC West should actually be a really fun division to watch. All of the teams have tremendous talent on their roster, but the Chiefs are just too good. The defending Super Bowl Champions are starting to build their case as the NFL’s next dynasty. Led by 24 year old, super start QB Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs are absolutely loaded on the offensive side of the ball. The Chiefs drafted RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire with the 32nd pick in the first round this year, a guy that was basically hand picked by Mahomes himself. Adding Edwards-Helaire to an offense that already has weapons like Playoff Damien (Williams), Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce and Mecole Hardman is a dream come true for one of the most talented QBs we have seen since the 2011 version of Aaron Rodgers. The Chiefs have a rare ability to flip a game in a single quarter. In the 2019 playoffs, the Chiefs were trailing the Texans 24-0. For most teams, that would be game over. Not for the Chiefs. They scored 41 unanswered points, and ended up winning the game 51-31. This team is never out of a game, even if they are down by 3, well basically 4 possessions. The Chiefs defense was a crucial piece in the 2019 Super Bowl run. During the postseason, they really elevated their game, even in the Texans game. You could argue that a team getting out to a 24-0 lead is not a good look for the defense… but the Chiefs only allowed 7 more points the entire game while their offense completed the greatest comeback in postseason history. On top of all of this, the Chiefs addressed their defense with 4 out of their 6 picks in the draft this year, most notably adding LB WIllie Gay Jr. in the second round.

Losers: Las Angeles Chargers

This is another division where someone had to be the loser. The LA Chargers have one of the most talented rosters in the NFL, but there are major questions at QB. Tyrod Taylor will likely start the season under center, and eventually 6th overall pick, Justin Herbert will step into the starting role, because they is what they drafted him to be. Personally, I am not a huge believer in Herbert… For all the hate that Green Bay QB Jordan Love is getting, I see a lot of the same traits in Justin Herbert’s game. The decision for who will lose this division came down to the Raiders and the Chargers. I think that Derek Carr is the modern day Alex Smith, good enough to win games, but probably now super bowls. That being said, I will side with the consistency of Derek Carr over the unknown in Justin Herbert. The Raiders stockpiled their offense with some really impressive WR/RBs in the draft, and they signed some of the most sought after LBs in free agency this year in Corey Littleton Jr. and Nick Kwiatkowski. This should be a highly competitive division, but we all know that they are just competing for 2nd place behind KC. I have the Chargers coming up short due to the growing pains that will come for rookie QB, Justin Herbert and he gets adjusted to the NFL.

NFC North

Winners: Minnesota Vikings

As a Packers fan, this hurts me. But as an analyst, there is no denying that Minniosta crushed the NFL draft, while the Packers had one of the most head scratching drafts that I can remember. Personally, I like the talent of Jordan Love, and the fact that he will get to learn behind Aaron Rodgers will be invaluable. I am one of those guys who believes that Aaron Rodgers is not a total asshole, so I think Love is in a great situation to learn from one of the GOATs. I digress, Minnisota slayed the draft. Last year the Packers went 13-3, but 6 of those wins came by 7 points or less.The Packers were implementing a new offense, so there were adjustments to be made, but the Packers simply did not address positions of immediate need in the draft. The Vikings did. Minnesota addressed WR, DB, OL, DE and LB all in the 4 rounds of the draft. The Packers spent their first three picks on positions that they did not need to address right now.

The Vikings are well coached, and they have a tremendous amount of talent on their roster. From an analysis perspective, I like the Vikings to get the better of the Packers this year, but as a Packers fan, I want to be on the record saying that it will not shock me if the Packers win this division again this year. This will be the 2nd year in this offensive system, and the Packers still have Aaron Rodgers… Rodgers will be on a mission this year to prove that he is not going anywhere any time soon. He will just need a lot of help from his existing offensive weapons since they left him out to dry in the draft. Davante Adams has a very realistic shot to lead the NFL in targets this year given that he is still the clear WR 1 on the team, and there is no clear WR 2 at the moment. Adams has the potential to finish the year as the WR1 in fantasy given the volume that will be coming his way next season.

Losers: Chicago Bears

Da Bears have been a really fun team to follow in the offseason. At one point they had 10 TEs on their roster. They traded for Nick Foles and took on that massive contract just for him to “be a backup” to Mitchell Trubisky. I think a case could be made for Detroit to lose this division again in 2020, but assuming Matt Stafford is healthy, the Detroit coaching staff is playing for their jobs this year. In 2019, Stafford was on pace for career bests in multiple passing categories before getting hurt in week 9. The Lions addressed some defensive needs in the draft this year, as well as added some more weapons for Stafford to utilize on offense. I have the Bears losing this division because I just don’t believe in Trubisky, and by the team declining his 5th year option they do not appear to see him as their future. If Trubisky gets benched, then Nick Foles is going to end up as the starter… Nick Foles could not win his job back from 6th round pick Gardner Minshew last season. I think Foles has had magical playoff runs, and is a great story… but he is not going to elevate this team. The Bears Defense is going to have to play at an extremely high level to keep the Bears in the hunt in any sense of the word this season, but in all honesty, the Bears may be a team that could be tanking for one of the 2021 QBs next year.

NFC South

Winners: New Orleans Saints

This division will be absolutely electric. Drew Brees and Tom Brady will play each other TWICE this year. These two offenses alone possess some of the top tier fantasy players at their respective positions. RB Alvin Kamara should return in 2020 fully healthy. I expect Kamara to see a huge uptick in TDs this year. Michael Thomas is coming off of a 149 catch season, setting a NFL record in 2019. The Bucs have arguably the best 1 - 2 combo at WR in the entire NFL in Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. Pairing those players up with future HOF QB Tom Brady, along with Brady convincing the WWE 24/7 Champion, Rob Gronkowski to come out of retirement… Holy star power, Batman.

I am picking the Saints to win this division because of the continuity of this team. There are a LOT of changes on the horizon in Tampa Bay, but in New Orleans, the key pieces are already in place, and at the end of 2019 we saw that Drew Brees still has it. In week 14, we saw a shootout with the 49ers where Drew Brees threw the ball 40 times, completing 29 of those passes for 349 yards and 5 TDs. The Saints ended up losing that game, but that was one of Brees’s best performances of the season, and shows that he can still perform at a high level despite his age. With the shortened offseason that we may experience, the changes in Tampa Bay may take a little more time to coalesce, meanwhile the Saints should pick up where they left off last year. Alvin Kamara is in for a huge bounce back year in 2020, he should still be a highly valued fantasy asset. Look for him to get back into the double digit TDs. Michael Thomas is going to be great… again. We have to remember that 2019 was a record breaking season, so we have to expect regression, but MT could still easily see 120 receptions in 2020.

Losers: Carolina Panthers

The Carolina Panthers are another team with a lot of changes coming in 2020. They have hired head coach Matt Rhule (2019 Baylor HC), and offensive coordinator Joe Brady (2019 LSU OC). I really like these additions, especially for fantasy purposes, but for real life NFL purposes, the Panthers are still the worst team in this division. Carolina is moving forward (for now) with Teddy Bridgewater as their QB. I love this signing for DJ Moore and Christian McCaffery. Bridgewater is a guy who is very accurate on short and intermediate passes, so Moore and CMC are obvious beneficiaries from Bridgewater’s QB style. What really crushed the Panthers was Luke Kuechly retiring unexpectedly at 29 years old. I have the Panthers losing this division simply because their defense is in no condition to face off against the other offenses in this division. The Panthers will be playing a lot of games from behind, so again, there is fantasy relevance in Carolina, most obviously with CMC. CMC could very well repeat as the RB1 again in 2020 because he will be asked to do so much. I also love DJ Moore for fantasy purposes. Bridgewater is used to locking in to a primary WR, when he started 5 games for the Saints, Michael Thomas saw virtually no change in his target share. DJ Moore is the most talented WR on the Panthers roster, if Moore establishes himself as Teddy’s favorite target, Moore could get up near 100 receptions in 2020. Also look for Moore to score more TDs in 2020. In 2019, Moore had 1,175 receiving yards, but just 4 TDs on the season. I like Moore as a top 12 WR in fantasy.

NFC East

Winners: Dallas Cowboys

Dallas may arguably have the most talented roster in the NFL. They have just never been able to string anything meaningful together. Last year, the NFC East seemed like a division that no one wanted to win. The Eagles ended up winning the division with a record of 9-7, edging out the Cowboys who finished at 8-8. Going into 2020, the Cowboys are turning over a new leaf. Jason Garrett was the HC in Dallas about 9 years longer than he should have been. The team has since moved on from Garrett and hired Mike McCarthy to add some juice to this ultra talented roster. I know that previously I have noted that head coaching changes can be a bad thing for NFL teams, but in McCarthy’s case, this is a verteran head coach who has an established track record in the NFL. On top of that, he is taking over a team with one of the best OLs in the NFL, a super star RB in Zeke Elliot and a very versatile RB2 in Tony Pollard. Don’t forget about the 3 incredibly talented WRs in Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup and rookie CeeDee Lamb. On the defense, the Cowboys were just outside of the top 10 defenses in the NFL just 1 year ago.

Dak Prescott is playing for a contract. He wants top 5 QB money, so this is a ‘prove it’ year for him. He has tons of weapons at his disposal. With this much talent around him, and a HC who is a proven winner, I think the Cowboys can finish 2020 with 10+ wins, and win this division handily.

Losers: Washington Redskins

The Redskins are another team that is gaining a veteran head coach in Ron Rivera, but the team has a LOT to figure out. Defensively, the Redskins added Chase Young with the 2nd overall pick in the draft. Their defense is honestly pretty good. What concerns me is their offense. 2nd year QB Dwayne Haskins showed us last year that he has a lot of learning left to do at the NFL level. The Redskins brought in weapons like RB Antonio Gibson and WR Antonio Gandy-Golden in the draft, but those guys will only be as effective as their QB. Gibson joins a crowded backfield, and Gandy-Golden is a tantalizing prospect, but played his college football at Liberty University. Gandy-Golden has tremendous upside, but he has a steep learning curve ahead of him in terms of adjusting to NFL caliber competition. There is a lot of potential on this roster, but Ron Rivera will have his work cut out for him trying to maximize the potential of all of these young, unproven players on offense. I think the Redskins are in for another long year.

NFC West

Winners: San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers had one of the greatest glow ups of all time in 2019. If you’ll remember back to the 2019 NFL draft, the 49ers had the 2nd overall pick in the draft. Fast forward to now… the 49ers just played in the Super Bowl. The 49ers have assembled a very impressive roster on both offense and defence. To make things sweeter, DC Robert Saleh is still with the team. The 49ers are extremely well coached on both sides of the ball. There are not very many obvious weaknesses in this team. They have an offensive game plan, and they are adding players that fit that scheme. I expect the 49ers pick up where they left off last year. This is one of the most competitive divisions in the league, I think a case could be made for the Seattle Seahawks to walk away with the division title in 2020, but the 49ers defense is too much for me to bet against. That being said, I am very excited for the Seattle vs. San Francisco match-ups we will get to see in 2020.

Losers: Las Angeles Rams

Say what??? That’s right… I have the Cardinals edging out the Rams this year. Kyler Murray appears to be the real deal in the NFL. The Arizona Cardinals just pulled off the heist of the century when they traded for WR Deondre Hopkins. Arizona also addressed KEY positions of need in the draft by adding Isaiah Simmons (LB) and Josh Jones (OL). As the Cardinals enter their 2nd year under Kliff Kingsberry, this roster has a ton of potential to me. The Rams, on the other hand, have some glaring concerns. First, their OL was one of the worst in the NFL a year ago, and they did little to address that in free agency or the draft. In the 2nd round of the draft, the Rams drafted another RB in Cam Akers. Akers is extremely talented, but he may not be able to overcome a poor OL in the NFL like he was able to do in college. Jarred Goff is a very capable QB in perfect situations, he excels in play action situations where he can set his feet and look down field. My worry with the Rams is that this team’s offensive identity burned away along with Todd Gurley’s knee cartilage. While I see the Cardinals with a clear path to improvement, I simply do not see that same path for the Rams, therefore I have them as my NFC West losers in 2020.

As always, thanks for reading!!!

-Zack Housholder