WR: Breakouts & Sleepers

Welcome!! It has been a minute since I have written an article, let's knock the rust off.

In this article we will take a look at some WRs who can give you an edge on your fantasy football team(s) in the 2020 season. We all know who the perennial studs of the league are. These are the household names, Michael Thomas, DeAndre Hopkins, Davante Adams, etc. Yes, these players are great, but everyone knows who they are great. These players will be picked in the first two rounds of every single fantasy football league. There is a chance that you will get at least one of these household names on your roster, and that is great. Every year, there are a handful of players who are on the verge of becoming the next big thing in fantasy football. These players are the ones that will help you get an edge over your league mates and bring home a ship.

The first thing I want to do in this article is define the terms Breakout and Sleeper. These are my own definitions of these words as they pertain to fantasy football. Your definitions may be different, but for the purpose of this article just use mine for a little bit.

Breakout: A breakout player is not the same as a sleeper. A breakout player has already shown some promise in the NFL. A breakout player may have already posted a top 36, or even a top 24 finish at their respective position. I view a breakout player as a player being drafted between rounds 3-5, yet this player still has the talent, ability and opportunity to outscore some of those locked in studs that are taken in rounds 1 & 2. If you are a fantasy football manager that goes RB early (this is both Alex and my own preferred strategy), It is crucial that you know exactly which WR's to target in these early/middle rounds to help fill the void of NOT having proven commodity at WR. If you can hit on the next breakout WR, you will have a clear advantage over the rest of your league.

Sleeper: A sleeper is a player who has flashed at times in the NFL, but has not exactly proved himself to be a consistent contributor to your fantasy football roster. A sleeper is a guy who could start the season on your bench, but eventually be a weekly FLEX play if everything pans out. Sleepers typically build up a ‘cult following’, where within certain circles they are seen as locked in breakout players, but their ADP does not quite tell the same story. I look for my sleepers starting around round 7 or 8 and beyond. Sleepers are low risk/ high reward players. If they do not pan out, they can be cut from your roster. If a sleeper does hit (ie. Michael Gallup in 2019), they could prove to be very useful fantasy football assets that regularly contribute to your team.

Now that we have defined what these terms mean (to me), I will give you a few Breakouts and Sleepers I really like heading into 2020!

Breakouts:

D.J. Moore:

2019: 87 receptions / 1175 yards / 4 TDs / Fantasy Finish: WR 18

I’ll start with an ‘obvious’ name here in D.J. Moore, but I am higher on Moore than most other analysts that I have seen. There has been a lot of buzz about how Calvin Ridley could be the next Chris Godwin. The situational comparison makes sense, but I do not see the same ceiling in terms of overall fantasy finish for Calvin Ridley.

D.J. Moore is the clear cut WR 1 in Carolina. Moore is getting an upgrade at QB in Teddy Bridgewater. Moore has a ‘do it all’ skill set. He is an explosive athlete as well as a good technician when it comes to route running. Moore excels at short - intermediate routes (outs, slants & digs). These are some of the same routes that one, Michael Thomas excels at as well. When Bridgewater got his shot to start in New Orleans we saw virtually no decline in MT’s production. Moore owns the middle of the field, and he has the ability to take a slant to the house. Carolina is attempting to rebuild a defense in a division that is LOADED with offensive talent. I see a lot of garbage time in the future, D.J. Moore will only stand to benefit from these extra offensive opportunities. Moore could flirt with 100 receptions this year, a virtual lock for another 1,000+ yard season, and with that kind of production we should expect more than 4 TDs in 2020. I think D.J. Moore is next in line to become a household name, and expect him to finish as a top 10 WR in 2020.

Terry McLaurin:

2019: 58 receptions / 919 yards / 7 TDs / Fantasy Finish: WR 27

Terry McLaurin arguably already broke out during is 2019 rookie campaign, but 2020 could be the year that he enters the conversation to be a top 24 pick for years to come. McLaurin was a WR that flew under the radar in the polarizing 2019 WR draft class lead by names like DK Metcalf, Hollywood Brown and AJ Brown. McLaurin played for the worst team of the aforementioned players, yet he solidified himself as a legitimate threat before any WR taken ahead of him in the 2019 NFL draft.

McLaurin had more success with QB Case Keenum under center, but towards the end of the year, McLaurin and Dwayne Haskins seemed to pick up where they left off as college teammates at Ohio State. Haskins has a lot of questions surrounding his ability to lead a NFL team as a franchise QB, but McLaurin is all but locked in as Washington’s WR 1 heading into 2020. McLaurin faced opposing teams’ number 1 coverage for much of his rookie year and proved to be successful.

Washington has added former Panthers HC Ron Rivera to lead the team. I don’t think it is out of the question for McLaurin to have a season similar to the one that D.J. Moore posted in 2019, but with more TDs! McLaurin was very close to breaking 1,000 yards as a rookie. I really like his chances of finishing as mid to high end WR 2 in 2020.

Diontae Johnson:

2019: 59 receptions / 680 yards / 5 TDs / Fantasy Finish: WR 43

Diontae could actually qualify as a sleeper based on my definition of sleeper vs. breakout.(especially the cult following part). Johnson’s ADP is currently WR 43. With his current rank, you could draft Johnson in the 7th round or later. If you follow our Twitter page (or like any other fantasy football analyst), you have probably seen the name Diontae Johnson a LOT over the past few weeks. Before I lost our OG Twitter account, Diontae Johnson was a player I was high on literally from day one of A-Z FFB being a thing. He has done nothing but gain hype over the past 2 months. I am classifying Johnson as a breakout candidate because I truly believe he has the opportunity to finish as a top 24 WR in 2020.

In Johnson’s rookie campaign, he proved to be an exceptional route runner. Johnson started 12 of 16 games, it did not take long for him to earn the trust of the coaching staff in PIT. In 2019 he had some of the worst QB we could have imagined, yet he still produced as a rookie. Johnson lead PIT in both targets (92) and TDs (5) as a rookie. Juju Smith-Schuster was injured, but still played in 12 games. Johnson saw 50 more targets that Juju in 2019. Don’t hear what I am not saying.. I do not project Johnson to have more targets than Juju in 2020, BUT, I am not saying that Johnson can’t emerge as the best WR on the team either. Juju did not show us that he was able be a bonafide WR 1 for his team. Juju is a good player, but do to his lack of ability to separate from man/press coverage, Juju’s effectiveness hinges upon him lining up in the slot. Diontae’s ability to win on the outside by running clean routes and creating separation virtually guarantees that he will be on the field a lot in year 2. The obvious upgrade at QB is why I am so high on Diontae Johnson in 2020. On paper, Johnson is basically a clone of Antonio Brown. Height, weight and even their combine performances are virtually identical.

I am not saying that Johnson will emerge as one of the best WRs to play the game, but I am saying that Johnson fits into PITs offensive scheme perfectly. He has already shown great potential. Johnson is a player I will be targeting aggressively in every draft, and I would even reach for him in the 6th round. Please understand that you can probably get Johnson in the 7th or 8th round of your drafts, but I do expect his ADP to continue to rise as we approach the 2020 season. Johnson is one of my favorite players heading into 2020. If you are with me, let me know on Twitter… @AtoZ_FFB, #DiontaeSzn.

Honorable Mentions:

• DK Metcalf - Seattle Seahawks

• Marquise Brown - Baltimore Ravens

• Deebo Samuel - San Francisco 49ers

Sleepers:

Mecole Hardman:

2019: 26 receptions / 538 yards / 6 TDs / Fantasy Finish: WR 59

Hardman is a BURNER tied to the Kansas City Chiefs offense. As a rookie, Hardman made the Pro Bowl as a kick returner. Hardman’s 2019 stats weren’t too impressive, but he is a big play waiting to happen. I spent a lot of time hoping that Hardman would walk into 2020 as the WR2 in KC, but the Chiefs proceeded to resign Sammy Watkins & Demarcus Robinson.. So much for those dreams of Hill & Hardman lined up on the outsides. I am not ready to throw in the towel on those dreams just yet. Hardman is a talented player and could be in line for that year 2 jump. Hardman is currently valued as the WR 54, at that value I think he is worth drafting as a guy who could win you a week on a single play. Hardman is the ultimate upside play, and if he can work is way into more consistent playing time in 2020, could wind up being one of the best value picks of the year given the team that he plays for.

Preston Williams:

2019: 32 receptions / 428 yards / 3 TDs / Fantasy Finish: WR 75

Preston Williams is another A-Z FFB favorite (for me, anyways). I have touched on Williams in an older article (https://atozffb.wixsite.com/home/post/superflex-dynasty-startup-draft-results) and in Episode 3 of the A-Z Fantasy Football Podcast - 68:30 (https://open.spotify.com/episode/61Bfp7xBmzazHVahgjyt8g)

The Miami Dolphins were not a team that had many bright spots heading in to the 2019 season. As the season progressed, DeVante Parker appeared to be the one fantasy football asset that had value. The numbers showed that Parker had an amazing year, but when looking at Parker’s season, Williams’s impact on Parker is what really stood out to me. DeVante Parker really picked up steam after Williams’s season ended due to an ACL tear in week 9. Here are those numbers that I am talking about.

DeVante Parker before & after Preston Williams:

• Weeks 1-9:

  • Double digit targets: 1

  • 100+ receiving yds. : 0

  • TDs: 4

• Weeks 10-17

  • Double digit targets: 5

  • 100+ receiving yds. 4

  • TDs: 5

Preston Williams is currently being drafted as the WR 50. Williams is 6’5”, 218 lbs. Big, fast and physical at the catch point with really impressive body control. He has all of the physical tools to be a WR 1 in the NFL. At times last season we saw those tools on full display. If Williams comes back in 2020 fully healthy, he walks right into the WR 2 spot in Miami and could be a FLEX play on your fantasy football team.

CeeDee Lamb:

2019: - College: Oklahoma -

CeeDee Lamb was drafted with the 17th pick in the first round by the Dallas Cowboys. Lamb enters a very crowded WR room in Dallas, but he is arguably the most talented WR on the roster. Dallas had a high volume passing attack in 2019, I am not expecting Lamb to be the team’s WR 1, or even the team’s WR 2 (right away). Lamb is a guy that I will be looking to draft around round 10 or 11. I think that eventually the talent will rise to the top, and by the mid point of the season, we could see Lamb supplant Gallup as the WR 2 in Dallas, and given the talent and draft capital, Lamb could emerge as the favorite target for QB Dak Prescott.

Honorable Mentions:

• Darius Slayton - New York Giants

• Anthony Miller - Chicago Bears

• Jalen Reagor - Philadelphia Eagles

I have typically had success finding breakout WRs. This is my first year as an “analyst”, but in past seasons I have hit on the following players, drafting them right before their breakout seasons:

Allen Robinson (2015)

Tyreek Hill (2017)

Juju Smith-Schuster (2018)

Chris Godwin (2019)

In past seasons, these breakout WR's were drafted in the 4th round or later. All of these WR's were weekly starters who ended up being WR 1's (top 12) at the end of the year. THAT is the kind of value that will help you win your leagues.

The breakouts that I have listed may not finish inside the top 12 at the WR position, but they will be steals in the draft considering their ADP as we inch closer and closer to draft season. These players have the talent, ability and opportunity to emerge as future stars in the NFL.

There are names that I did not mention that could have easily been included as breakouts or sleepers, but these are some that I like that could prove to be key pieces of your team in 2020.

If there are any names that I left off, hit up the Twitter page, @AtoZ_FFB and let us know who your breakout and sleeper WRs are heading into 2020. Also, be sure to check out the A-Z Fantasy Football Podcast on Spotify! As always, thank you so much for taking the time to check out the article! Hit up the ‘Content’ tab and look at some of our older articles as well.

Peace,

Zack Housholder

Sources: Pro-Football-Reference.com