What to do with the Dallas Cowboys Wide Receivers

What’s up, my friends! In this article I want to address a question left on our Instagram page. Before I jump into the question, I want to take a second and encourage you to give us a follow on Twitter and Instagram @AtoZffb. If you have any questions of your own, please reach out and ask! We would love to interact with you guys as we continue to grow this page and this brand.

Alright, let’s dive into this question… We had a listener ask about the fantasy outlook for Michael Gallup in 2020 (and beyond). Before we look forward, let’s take a look back at Gallup’s 2019 season.

Gallup had a breakout season, posting an impressive stat line in 2019. Gallup saw 113 targets, which is only SIX less targets than the Cowboys WR1, Amari Cooper (119). Gallup hauled in 66 receptions for 1,107 yards and 6 TDs (in 14 games!). Overall, this is a very impressive season for the 24-year old WR, earning him a WR22 finish in 0.5 PPR scoring formats. At the end of the 2019 season, Gallup was a WR that was on everyone’s radar heading into 2020 fantasy football drafts.Then CeeDee Lamb found himself still on the board at pick 17 in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft, and Jerry Jones wasted no time selecting Lamb as the newest member of the Dallas Cowboys. That had to be a tough blow for Gallup truthers, but don’t freak out too much… There are still plenty of reasons to be excited about Gallup moving forward.

Targets galore!

Starting out, I took a look at the average number of targets for last year’s top 24 fantasy WRs. I wanted to get an idea of what kind of target volume a top 24 WR sees, and then take a look at where the Cowboys WRs stacked up on a per-game basis.

I looked at the average targets over the season for the top 12 WRs, added those up and averaged them out. Collectively, last year’s WR1 group averaged 8.2 targets per game. I then did the same calculation for the WR2 group--collectively the WR2 group averaged 7.7 targets per game. For the sake of this research, I settled on 7 targets. 7 targets is a pretty significant amount--if the QB is looking your way 7 times in a game you must be doing something right… I wanted to take a look at all three of the Dallas Cowboys WRs and see how many games in 2019 each of these WRs saw 7+ targets in a game…

Amari Cooper: 10 games (7.4 Tg/Gm)

Michael Gallup: 10 games (8.1 Tg/Gm)

Randall Cobb: 5 games (5.5 Tg/Gm)

You can see that there is a clear opportunity gap between the WR2 and WR3 for the Cowboys, but I want to note that Cobb had four games with 6 targets, barely missing that 7 target mark. Cobb finished the 2019 as the WR44. So not a super impressive finish, BUT in games where Cobb saw at least 7 targets, he finished all but one of those games with at least 70 yards, and even broke 100 yards twice.

It is very rare for a team to support three fantasy relevant WRs.. WR44 is probably not a player you are excited about rostering, but Cobb did provide usable fantasy weeks at times. Heading into 2020, the Cowboys could find themselves in a position where having three weekly startable options is not out of the question.

Vacated Targets:

The Dallas Cowboys have the third highest amount of vacated targets heading into the 2020 season. Vacated Targets simply refers to the combined number of targets for players that no longer play on that team. The Cowboys have 190 vacated targets, which averages out to 11.4 targets PER GAME that we could expect to see distributed between their receiving weapons. Randall Cobb and Jason Witten are two players that will not be returning to the team in 2020. Both of these players saw 83 targets each (166 vacated between just two players). I would venture to say that both of these players are past their respective primes, but 83 targets is nothing to bat an eye at. I see CeeDee Lamb as a huge talent upgrade over Randall Cobb… Randall Cobb fits the mold of a team’s WR3… CeeDee Lamb fits the mold a team’s WR1. Lamb finds himself in a position where early on in his career. He will not be asked to be that WR1, but that does not mean that he won’t emerge as that type of player anyway. With this amount of vacated targets in the Cowboys offense, we can virtually lock in AT LEAST 83 targets for Lamb in his rookie campaign. Lamb is a more talented WR than Cobb, and based on Lamb’s talent and YAC ability, I would not be surprised in the slightest to see Lamb surpass 90 targets in his rookie season.

If we see Lamb with a target total in the 90’s, then I would expect Gallup’s targets to slightly regress as a result of a 3rd receiving option seeing more targets than the previous year. Cooper’s targets feel safe to me. As the team’s WR1, Cooper only saw 119 targets. For a player of his caliber, that is a repeatable number for him.

Who is the WR2?:

Given the gap between the WR2 and WR3 we saw in 2019, it will be important to identify who is going to be the 2nd option for Dak Prescott in 2020. That being said, in 2020 I think the gap between WR2 and WR3 may be much, much closer at the end of the season. I really believe it is just a matter of time before CeeDee Lamb breaks out in 2020. Lamb was, and still is my favorite WR from the 2020 rookie class. Given the amount of vacated targets that we just discussed, I think Lamb finds himself in one of the best landing spots out of any of these WRs. You might say “That is crazy, how is starting out as the WR3 better than walking into the WR1 role?” Well just like we ALWAYS talk about with rookie QBs… It takes time for players to get adjusted to the NFL, especially WRs. NFL defenders are better than 95% of the defenders they matched up against in college. Dominating with pure athleticism probably won’t fly at this level like it did in college. While Lamb will not be the WR1 for his team right away, he is easily on the best offense (especially for a WR) out of any of the WRs selected in the first round.. While Jalen Reagor is taking that WR1 role for Philadelphia, he can also enjoy that #1 coverage from opposing defenses. CeeDee Lamb has all the talent he needs to do more with less, AND he will be a huge beneficiary of softer (and more beatable) coverage because of the WR talent around him. This will only give Lamb a higher chance to succeed and build that confidence as he continues to adjust to the NFL. So again, while Lamb may not lead his team in targets in year 1, he could still have a very productive rookie season, priming him for a bright future.

If I had to rank the Dallas Cowboys WRs right now, I would still say Cooper will be the target leader, but that isn’t saying much given that he only had 6 more targets than the team’s WR2 last year. The team is paying Cooper a lot of money--he will see a lot of targets--but I do not expect Cooper to jump up to 140-150 targets like some other WR1’s around the league. 120 feels about right for him. Okay, but who is the WR2? I am going to say both Gallup and Lamb will be the WR2 at some point this year...

To start the season, I would say that Gallup has a great chance to get off to a hot start. We have to consider the impact that the COVID outbreak will have on off season programs. While I believe that Lamb is a pro-ready WR, Gallup already has rapport with Dak, and he is just more familiar with the NFL game speed and defenses. These are both things that take time and reps. If we see offseason programs delayed or even cancelled, that bolsters the case for Gallup, especially early on in the season. In the first 8 games, I would expect to see Gallup with more games of 7+ targets than Lamb, making him the more reliable fantasy option out of the gate.

Once Lamb gets these things figured out, I believe we will see a shift in targets from Gallup to Lamb. This does not mean that Gallup will not be targeted at all, but if Lamb lives up to the hype of being the best WR prospect since 2015 (higher prospect score than guys like Calvin Ridley, DK Metcalf, DJ Moore & AJ Brown), the team is going to want the ball in his hands as much as possible. I know I just listed off some big names, there were also a handful of guys who had a very similar prospect score as CeeDee Lamb that we would all say are busts (ie. Laquon Treadwell, John Ross, Corey Coleman & Corey Davis)… But we can only work with the data we have, the rest is up to the player to prove us right, or wrong.

I believe in the talent, and I expect CeeDee Lamb to supplant Gallup as the WR2 by week 8 or 9. Once this happens, Lamb will be the WR seeing more games with 7+ targets through the second half of the year. Even though both of these players could see half a season with 7+ targets, I don’t think either of them will finish in the top 24 this year at the position because they would need to see that 7+ targets over the course of 16 games, not 8-10 games.

If we see this sort of mid-season shift, we could actually see these players wind up surprisingly close in overall fantasy finish. I think that CeeDee Lamb removes Gallup from the WR2 conversation, but Gallup can still be a WR3, with the potential to finish inside the top 30 at the position depending on what kind of production he sees early on. Since Lamb will be the one getting off to the slower start, his overall finish should be lower in 2020, maybe in the WR39-WR44 range. If Lamb does emerge as the Cowboys WR2, he could give you WR2 fantasy production each week for the remainder of the season. A consistent weekly target share, combined with the fact that he is always a threat to score a TD, Lamb could help win you a week, and maybe even your league.

Buy low, Sell high:

In fantasy football, it is very important to get off to a hot start. You do not want to be playing catch-up and competing for one of those final playoff spots. I think Gallup is a player that you can still draft to be your WR2. Given the drafting of Lamb, Gallup’s ADP could fall slightly, making him a value for where he is drafted. I would recommend drafting Gallup with the intention of selling him high. If he is producing steady WR2 numbers through the first 4 or 5 weeks, look to flip Gallup for a player with a more secure role on his team. By week 4 or 5, CeeDee Lamb should be getting things figured out, and just a few weeks later the window to sell Gallup at his peak value could have passed. By the time we see Lamb emerge, Gallup will be an established piece of the offense, but we could still see him lose 2-3 targets per week, over time that will add up. That being said, Gallup will not be a player that just fades into irrelevance, he could still have fantasy relevant weeks, but will drop from WR2 consideration into FLEX consideration.

CeeDee Lamb is a player that I wouldn’t mind drafting in the later rounds of re-draft leagues and stashing him on my bench to see what he can do. There is a real possibility that Lamb can be a FLEX play right away, and then by week 8 or 9, you could have a legit WR2 that you drafted in the 11th round to fill out your bench.

In Dynasty formats, my view on Gallup changes slightly, only because of Amari Cooper’s contract situation. The Cowboys have an out on Cooper’s contract in 2021. Cooper is just 25 years old, and Gallup is 24 years old. If the team chooses to move on from Amari Cooper in 2021, Gallup will be in the conversation as a high end WR2, and Lamb would enter the WR1 conversation immediately… If the team keeps Cooper and continues to roll out these three WRs together, then Gallup remains in the WR3 - FLEX conversation, and Lamb would be the one in the WR2 conversation… These are players that can still be started on your team, but given the fact that they are all talented, they will eat away at each other's production and upside.

In dynasty leagues, I would keep the sell-high approach in mind with Gallup early on in the 2020 season because you can likely get a good player back for him. Just know that if you do sell Gallup while his value is high this year, you are then gambling on the team KEEPING Amari Cooper through his 5 year, $100 million contract. If you miss the sell-high window for Gallup, AND the team keeps Cooper, then Gallup will lose a tremendous amount of value in dynasty leagues, so timing will be crucial if you are considering trading Gallup. This situation makes Michael Gallup one of the most risk/reward WRs in dynasty leagues right now.

In conclusion…:

I think that Micheal Gallup is still a viable fantasy option in all formats, but we need to adjust expectations. He is a player I would be happy drafting because I know he could help put my fantasy team in an advantageous position early on in the season. We just need to be ready for the emergence of CeeDee Lamb, because he is coming. Lamb is a player that I would be absolutely shocked if he busted. Once Lamb breaks out, Gallup’s trade value will plummet in re-draft leagues. That being said, Gallup could still be a weekly FLEX play if you are stuck with Gallup because you missed the trade window for him. Lamb is a player that I would encourage you to draft and keep on your bench if you can (kind of like we do with RB handcuffs). It might take some time, but this is a player who has double-digit TD upside in year 1.

As always, thank you for reading!! Please hit up our Twitter and Instagram page, @AtoZffb, and let me know what you will be doing with Michael Gallup and CeeDee Lamb in your leagues in 2020. I am very curious to hear other perspectives on this crowded, but mega talented WR group.

Peace!!

Zack Housholder

Sources: FantasyPros.com / Pro-Football-Reference.com / 4for4.com / NFL.com