Chris Godwin: WR1

#HotTake coming at ya… Chris Godwin is my WR1 in dynasty formats. In a previous article (Dynasty Superflex Startup: Draft Results) and episode 1.01 of the A-Z Fantasy Football Podcast (check out both episodes on Spotify & Google Podcasts), I mentioned that there should be more hype for Godwin as the WR1, so here it comes.

The consensus WR1 is, and has been Michael Thomas for the past two years, and for good reason. Thomas has been insanely productive since he entered the NFL in 2017. According to FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR), Chris Godwin is currently the WR5 in dynasty formats. Players ahead of Godwin (w/ age) are: 1. Michael Thomas (27) 2. DeAndre Hopkins (27) 3. Davante Adams (27) and 4. Tyreek Hill (26).

I have been on record saying that Chris Godwin is one of my favorite players in fantasy football (and in real life). I had Godwin on multiple fantasy teams during his 2019 break out season. The highs were oh so high… Before writing an article on this particular take, I had to ask myself, “Do I think this just because I am a fan of Godwin, the player/person? Because that might get me burnt… Or do I actually believe this?” As I continued to dig into the idea of Chris Godwin being the WR1 in dynasty formats, the numbers backed me up. Let’s take a look.

Age:

Right off the bat, Chris Godwin is younger than every player ranked ahead of him. Godwin just turned 24 in February, so he will play the entire 2020 season at 24 years old. WRs hold value in dynasty much longer than RBs simply for the fact that WRs can play into their 30’s and still be impact players for their teams (ie. Julio Jones). Godwin’s age may be his greatest asset in bolstering the argument for why he is the WR1 in dynasty leagues. Apexfantasyleageus.com did a really cool study on the age in which NFL WRs peak. The study found that after age 27, we tend to see a “decline” take place. This does not mean that the WRs perform poorly or lose their value to your fantasy teams… All it means is that typically after age 27, you have probably seen a players’ best fantasy season from a production standpoint. There are plenty of exceptions to this “rule”, but history tells us that we have probably not seen Godwin’s peak season yet, and we may have already seen the best fantasy seasons from the WRs ranked ahead of him. Reminder… Godwin had 1,333 yards and 9 TDs in 2020.

Talent:

Godwin possesses all of the traits of a dominant WR1 for an NFL team. Godwin is an impressive blend of size (6’1 / 209 lbs.), strength and speed (4.42 speed). He has the speed and release to win against man coverage. He has the vision and feel to find soft spots in zone coverage. He is effective both on the perimeter and in the slot. He is used very similarly to how Green Bay uses Davante Adams, he is moved around the field and capitalizes on advantageous match-ups wherever he lines up. Godwin runs crisp routes, creating natural separation, and his hands are elite. In 2019, Godwin saw 121 targets and only recorded ONE drop and also had ZERO fumbles on his 86 receptions according to Pro-Football-Reference. 71.1% catch rate / 0.8% drop rate with Jameis Winston as his QB… Insane. My favorite thing about Godwin is his toughness. Godwin fights for the ball at the catch point, and is always looking for positive yards after the catch. He is not afraid to lower his shoulder and take on any defender in his way. In contested catch situations, Godwin has excellent body control and his ball skills and ability to maintain concentration through contact give him as good a chance as anyone to come down with these 50/50 balls.

In 2019, Pro Football Focus (PFF) had Chris Godwin as the highest graded WR in the NFL, receiving a grade of 90.7. We saw Micheal Thomas break a 17 year old NFL record, but when ALL aspects of a WRs game are taken into account, Chris freakin’ Godwin came out on top. Factoring in Godwin’s age with his talent, it is likely that we have not even seen the best version of Chris Godwin yet. Don’t be late to this party.

Team Situation:

Chris Godwin finds himself in a rare situation relative to the other top WRs on this list. Godwin plays alongside the WR6 in dynasty formats, Mike Evans (26 yrs. old). Both players are immensely talented, but in this article I am only going to focus on building the case for Chris Godwin.

When Bruce Arians was announced as the Head Coach of the Buccaneers in 2019, he made a point to say that he wanted Chris Godwin to be a 100 reception WR for the team. In 14 games played in 2019, Godwin fell just 14 receptions short of the 100 mark. In 2019, Godwin proved to be the more reliable, QB friendly target in the Tampa Bay offense. Mike Evans also saw 118 targets in 2019, but he only caught 67 (56.8%) compared to Godwin’s 86 (77.1%). Evans is a very skilled WR, but he is not as well rounded as Godwin. Mike Evans & Chris Godwin can both sustain their fantasy value as top 10 WRs much like we saw in Pittsburgh with Antonio Brown and Juju Smith-Shuster in 2018. What elevates Godwin in this comparison the the PIT duo is that during the 2 games that Chris Godwin played without Mike Evans in 2019, Godwin saw 17 TG / 12 REC for 212 yards over that two week span. Small sample size, yes. But this is what Godwin is capable of as the defacto WR1. I believe that Mike Evans helps Godwin, as Evans demands attention from opposing defenses.

We saw a WR2 (overall) finish from Chris Godwin in 2019 despite missing the final two games due to injury. Heading into 2020, Godwin is seeing an upgrade at QB with future Hall of Famer Tom Brady heading to Tampa Bay. Godwin’s ability to win at all three levels, both outside and in the slot, will be a dream come true for Tom Brady. Brady is surgical over the middle of the field, and Godwin is a much more talented version of Julian Edelman who also offers the versatility to play on the perimeter as well. As long as Brady is in town, I expect Godwin to remain the WR1 in Tampa Bay with the upside to finish as the WR1 in fantasy as well.

Future Outlook:

Tampa Bay does have some question marks in regards to the future at the QB position, but this would be my ONLY concern with Godwin. But before we get too excited, let's look at the WRs still ranked ahead of Godwin.

• Micheal Thomas: Brees on the verge of retirement, Jameis Winston or Taysom Hill are the presumptive future QB in NOLA. We have an extremely small sample size of Thomas playing without a HOF QB.

• DeAndre Hopkins: Enters a crowded WR room in an Arizona offense that will spread the ball around to multiple players. Expected to see a dip in targets and overall team market share.

• Davante Adams: Packers just drafted the heir apparent to QB Aaron Rodgers in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft, so the future in GB is up in the air. Jordan Love is the epitome of a developmental prospect.

• Tyreek Hill: Great offensive situation, but his off the field issues present a bigger risk than most realize. If Hill is involved in another off the field incident, he could miss significant time.

As you can see, there is built in risk with all of the players currently ahead of Godwin. Don’t get me wrong, Godwin has his own built in risk as well. The futures of all of these WRs are arguably just as hazy as Godwin’s for various reasons. What all of these players have in common is next level talent that should be a great benefit to any QB throwing them the ball. We have seen all of these WRs be successful with back-up level QB play. I think that Godwin’s talent is on par with all of the WRs listed above. Godwin’s route running and reliable hands would make him the preferred target for a backup QB, or a future rookie QB if that is the direction that Tampa Bay chooses to go. For the here and now, Godwin is coming off of a 2nd team all pro season, and for the next two seasons he will be catching passes from arguably the best QB of all time.

Godwin...WR1:

As I mentioned at the top of this article, when this thought first popped into my head I didn’t know if it was legitimate, or if I was just riding the high from Godwin’s 2019’s break out season. I will admit, in the past I have valued players higher than they should be based on their previous season performance. At age 24, it isn’t likely that we have seen the best of Chris Godwin. If anything, in 2019 Godwin proved that he is the WR1 on his team, and is trending towards being a perennial WR1 in fantasy football as well.

The amazing thing about Chris Godwin in dynasty leagues is the fact that a very small minority think he belongs in the same breath as MT, Nuk or D. Adams.. I’m here to tell you he absolutely does. If you have any of those players on your dynasty roster, I would be approaching the Godwin manger in your league with some offers. At Godwin’s current value, you will likely be able to get Godwin plus a pick PLUS a developmental player for any of the WRs currently ranked ahead of Godwin.

Team A: DeAndre Hopkins + a late 2021 2nd round pick

Team B: Chris Godwin + Antonio Gibson (pick any high upside player here)

Obviously, I would be heavily in favor of the Godwin/Gibson side of this trade. Godwin is just as safe as Hopkins, and probably possesses more upside given that most of us expect Hopkins to regress in targets in Arizona. This is one example of a trade I would absolutely be pursuing to acquire Chris Godwin before he does emerge as the consensus WR1 in dynasty leagues. If you want to argue that the players ranked ahead of Godwin are better than him right now, okay…. But not by much. In a few years when those players are starting to see their production decline, we could be right in the heart of Godwin’s prime. I will not be missing out on that.

As always, thank you SO much for taking the time to read this. I hope you enjoyed the article and were able to take something away from it. Please connect with us on social media, @AtoZffb and tell us who you have as the WR1 in dynasty formats!

Cheers.

-Zack Housholder

Sources: Pro-Football-Reference.com / ProFootballFocus.com / Apexfantasyleageus.com